Here’s Ontario’s updated COVID-19 modelling (June 10)

Marco Green
June 11, 2021

The Delta variant, which is more transmissible and could be more unsafe, will likely be the dominant strain of the virus this summer.

As for hospitals, normal operations could resume by mid-July with the modelling predicting fewer than 200 patients in the ICU by then.

But Brown said that he believes that it can be controlled by accelerating second doses in hot spot communities that are experiencing a rapid rise in Delta cases.

In order to contain the spread as much as possible, the province is being urged to focus vaccinations - particularly second doses, which are most effective against the Delta variant - on the highest-risk communities. "When we say it is the dominant form of the virus that just means it makes up the largest percentage of cases, not necessarily that it is growing absolutely".

"This is not a doomsday scenario ... We have a really good chance of a good summer".

To avoid a fourth wave of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant, Ontario must ensure first and second vaccine doses are getting to high-risk communities, according to new modelling.

"Mobile vaccine units supported by province operated pop-ups and employer-led clinics that provided first doses in Peel, Toronto and York public health regions will also begin operating second dose clinics beginning the week of June 20, 2021", notes the province.

In a best case scenario, Ontario's daily COVID-19 case count will remain under 500 during the summer.

In a worst case scenario, cases will spike to 2,500 per day by the middle of August.

Health officials logged 590 new infections on Thursday, as well as 11 deaths related to the novel coronavirus. To date, 1,399,776 people have received two shots and are considered fully vaccinated.

The province administered 182,350 doses Wednesday and nearly 10.63 million doses in total.

This contact will provide them with an Ontario vaccination record and also give public health officials with a fuller picture of vaccination rates in the province.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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