IATA: Travel Pass key to reopening borders safely Read more Skip

Marco Green
Ноября 25, 2020

Nevertheless, a net loss of $38.7 billion is expected in 2021 more than the $15.8 billion as projected by the previous forecast.

Passenger numbers are expected to grow to 2.8 billion in 2021, but won't return to the 4.5 billion reached a year ago until 2024 at the earliest, with domestic markets expected to recover faster than global services, IATA said.

The short- and medium-haul markets with under 5,500km routes would make a faster recovery compared with the long-haul routes, he said, adding that border reopening with testing instead of quarantine would be the key to enable travel.

In comparison, India's largest domestic airline, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd operated IndiGo last month reported a record consolidated net loss of ₹1,195 crore during the September quarter.

"Passenger revenues are expected to fall to $191 billion, less than a third of the $612 billion earned in 2019. And with airlines expected to bleed cash at least until the fourth quarter of 2021 there is no time to lose".

Meanwhile, IATA regional director of airports and external relations for Asia-Pacific, Vinoop Goel, said the net losses of Asia-Pacific airlines were expected to narrow to US$7.5 billion (US$1=RM4.09) against US$31.7 billion estimated for this year. Airlines cut expenses by an average of a billion dollars a day over 2020 and will still rack-up unprecedented losses. Domestic markets, largely propelled by a recovery in China and Russian Federation, are expected to perform better and end 2020 49% below 2019 levels.

IATA had earlier predicted 66 per cent drop in global air traffic in 2020 and said it will drop 46 per cent next year compared to 2019.

Cargo revenues are bucking the trend, increasing to US$117.7 billion in 2020 from US$102.4 billion in 2019.

IATA figures show that overall cargo capacity was down by around 24% previous year (with belly capacity around 45% down) and yields increased by 30%.

While cargo won't replace the precipitous drop in air passenger revenue, it has helped airlines to "sustain their skeleton worldwide networks", de Juniac said.

"The cargo side of the business is expected to continue with strong performance", IATA said.

In 2019 cargo accounted for 12 percent of revenues and that is expected to grow to 36 percent in 2020. Airlines will still lose, however, US$13.78 for each passenger carried.

Passenger numbers are expected to grow to 2.8 billion in 2021. "$131 billion improvement on 2020, but still 45% below the $838 billion achieved in 2019", they stated.

The airline association said that improved business confidence and the important role that air cargo should play in vaccine distribution is expected to see cargo volumes grow to 61.2m tonnes, essentially matching the 61.3m tonnes carried in 2019.

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