318 new Covid-19 cases take Assam's caseload to 200,709

Elias Hubbard
October 19, 2020

Further, the prompt imposition of the lockdown on March 24 had resulted in deaths being around one-lakh so far, which otherwise would have reached around 10 lakh had the lockdown was imposed in May, said the panel.

- If all of us follow these protocols, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end.

The mandate of the committee was to create an evidence-based mathematical model for the pandemic after taking inputs from various groups working in the domain in the country and use it to analyse past events and future trajectories of the pandemic. The number of active cases of coronavirus infection remained below eight lakh for the second consecutive day. Moreover, the report suggests that over 30 percent of the population is projected to have antibodies. Moreover, there would have been over 1.4 crore symptomatic infections by June in the absence of a lockdown, the study said. The total number of recoveries has surged to 65,97,209 and exceed active cases by 58,13,898.

According to him, India is in a somewhat better position now but the country still has a long way to go because 90 per cent of the people are still susceptible to coronavirus infections.

"In India, the new coronavirus cases and number of deaths have declined in the last three weeks and the pandemic has stabilised in most of the states...."

However, Niti Aayog Member Paul warned against complacency and said the possibility of a second wave of infections in winter can not be ruled out. The committee also warned that there might be a spike in COVID-19 cases with the onset of winters and the upcoming festive season, adding that a COVID-19 second wave is a possibility in the winter. "We do not yet know the weather-specific perturbations of this pandemic (in general, viruses tend to be more active in colder environment) and the effects of possible future mutations in the virus", IIT Hyderabad professor M. Vidyasagar said.

The panel is apprehensive that the festival and winter season may cause an increase in the incidence of the infection.

Stressing on Covid-appropriate behaviour during festival season and winter months, he said, "Because of the winter season, some increase in pollution in north India as well as festival season, we have to be very careful. coming months are a challenge. One would be anxious that we could lose the gains that we have made", Paul said.

Meanwhile, Niti Aayog Member V K Paul said that COVID-19 cases and deaths witnessed a decline in last three weeks.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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