United Kingdom could have the most coronavirus deaths in Europe, researchers predict

Elias Hubbard
April 8, 2020

Similarly, the total number of deaths expected in the state by August have been reduced under the new projections.

The state will need 245 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds at peak, with 629 now available, the projections show.

April 2 was also the date UW says Washington reached its peak need for medical resources, getting through that period without shortages of hospital or ICU beds, but still needing 157 ventilators.

They also found that the Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, and Luxembourg are soon to peak with their pandemic wave.

There should be just over 150,000 deaths across Europe, with 81,766 lives lost in the United States. According to the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC), that was a "severe season". For instance, it said NY would require 14,947 to 37,576 hospital beds on April 5; the state had 16,479 in hospitals on Sunday. There are projected to be just over 15,000 deaths there. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, are among the top state and national officials who have cited it when talking about projected figures related to the virus outbreak.

Based on information from the new models, Washington Governor Jay Inslee made the decision to send 400 ventilators back to federal stockpile to be used in other states. He said "incorporating that information makes a very big difference in terms of our estimate of need". The range of error indicates the deaths could be as low as 1,182 or as high as 3,285.

As of Sunday, there were 7,984 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Washington state, with 338 deaths. But the statewide peak is an average, meaning hospitals in Eastern Washington still could see an increase in cases.

Murray said the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation isn't ready to say when it might be safe to scale back social distancing practices.

"The potential for rebound is enormous if we let up on social distancing", he said.

The IHME models include the predicted effect of social distancing, and Murray said it was vital that measures aren't relaxed too suddenly once countries pass their morality peak.

Previously, IHME projected 6,392 deaths, and now they're estimating 2,025 deaths. "Our forecasts assume that social distancing remains in place until the end of May", Murray said.

While this is all represents good news for the state as it deals with its outbreak, UW's modeling is based on Washington continuing "full social distancing" all the way through May. As more data becomes available, the projections are being updated nearly daily at covid19.healthdata.org.

Meanwhile, experts at Washington State University, the Spokane Regional Health District and MultiCare have been collaborating on another model created to forecast local hospital burdens due to COVID-19.

In an email, Spokane Health Officer Dr. Bob Lutz said that model "is envisioned to provide a local/regional means by which we can determine our status and manage accordingly". He referred questions about the project to WSU and MultiCare, which runs Deaconess and Valley hospitals. That number was down by almost 3,000 from his report on Friday where the governor said 8,741 were available.

It's important to note that much uncertainty comes with modeling into the future. "To minimize these variables, we are continually tweaking our models to present the most accurate information possible".

More than 5,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Britain, fewer than in Spain, Italy and France.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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