PC Sales to Fall in 2020, 2021, and 2022

Joanna Estrada
January 23, 2020

Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, said 2020 should see a slight recovery, as customers rush to buy 5G handsets.

While the world's first 5G-enabled handsets came out previous year, scarce availability, high prices, and perhaps most importantly, slow network rollouts made it essentially impossible for their sales numbers to count for much in the grand scheme of things. Furthermore, Gartner estimates, that 5G models will account for 12% of mobile phone shipments in 2020 and 43% in 2022. The latest forecast calls for a modest 1.7 percent hike to 1.77 billion units, followed by a tiny decline predicted for 2021 and a bigger one in 2022, when sales could drop as low as 1.75 billion units. Gartner said it expected 5G devices to make up 50pc of sales by 2023.

Still, it may be that hardware might march on ahead regardless. "From 2020, Gartner expects an increase in 5G phone adoption as prices decrease, 5G service coverage increases and users have better experiences with 5G phones", writes Atwal.

Gartner expects the growth to come mainly from Greater China and emerging markets in Asia/Pacific. Smartphone shipments were weak in 2019, down 2% year-on-year. Gartner predicts that 1 billion personal computers will migrate to Windows 10 in 2020.

Part of that is due to slower migration trends - Windows 10 adoption was the primary driver for people switching up and buying new devices previous year, but now that's more or less finished. Microsofts decision to end support for Windows 7 will have a significant effect on the PC market. In any case, the upgrade cycle is changing because of how Windows is evolving. Windows 10 will be upgraded through regular updates. (I combine and average data from both Gartner and IDC in my own market share analysis.) And then they will fall again, to 247 million units in 2021 and then 242 million units in 2022.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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