NHC: Tropical Depression or Storm Possible By Weekend

James Marshall
October 17, 2019

"The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas", according to the Weather Service, which advises residents to continue to monitor updated forecasts.

Most long range computer models keep the system weak as it interacts with a front draped across the southern U.S. Moisture from the system will interact with the front to spread locally heavy rainfall across portions of the northern Gulf Coast late this week into this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center has given the system a 90 percent chance of development.

While a budding tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will fight wind shear and dry air, it has the potential to become Tropical Depression 16 and perhaps Tropical Storm Nestor in the coming days before eyeing Florida.

Winds are now to 35 miles per hour, and this system is moving north at 8 miles per hour.

If necessary a hurricane reconnaissance craft will investigate the storm later Thursday afternoon which would go a long way in telling us how this storm will behave.

A subtropical storm isn't a fully tropical system but has some of those features. If the weather system strengthens into a tropical storm it would have the name "Nestor".

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 30.

A widespread area of at least 2 to 4 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts, may be in the offing in the Florida Panhandle and east of the Tensaw River/Mobile Bay, with heavy rain then spreading inland across the Southeast and toward the Mid-Atlantic later this weekend.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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