World Bank Downgrades 2019 Growth Forecast for Russian Federation

Marco Green
January 10, 2019

"Debt vulnerabilities in emerging market and developing economies, particularly low-income countries, have increased", it said.

The Philippines will be among the fastest-growing countries in East Asia and the Pacific, roughly matching or outpacing China (6.5% in 2018, 6.2% in 2019 and 2020, and six percent in 2021) though slower than Vietnam (6.8% in 2018, 6.6% in 2019, and 6.5% in 2020 and 2021).

"Global growth is slowing, and the risks are rising", Ayhan Kose, the World Bank economist who oversees forecasts, said in an interview.

The bank predicts that the growth of world trade will slow to 3.6 percent this year from 3.8 percent in 2018 and 5.4 percent in 2017.

According to the GEP, the advanced economies are the worst performers, with a growth rate of 2.2 per cent last year that is forecast to steadily fall to 2 per cent this year, and to 1.6 per cent and 1.5 per cent in the next two years.

In its "2019 Global Economic Prospects" report released late on Tuesday, the World Bank said growth in sub-Saharan Africa was expected to accelerate to 3.4%, despite global expansion being expected to decline to 2.9% as trade and investment weaken.

"Global growth is still robust but whether a storm will hit or it will clear highly depends on how policymakers are going to react", he said. Among other African countries, growth would generally be "solid".

"But what we see happening are troubling signs in terms of global trade and manufacturing activities", she said. So far India and Indonesia have escaped that fate.

"How they resolve their differences is going to be very important how global economy is going to shape this year", said Kose.

Trade is an engine of growth and has been "a driving force in terms of poverty reduction", he said. "Our hope is that these differences are going to be resolved".

Urging countries to accelerate reforms, Ms Georgieva said from the Bank's perspective, this is particularly critical for investing in human capital, lowering barriers to higher investments and boost positivity and make sure that they are integrated in the world economy in a way that helps them to expand and grow.

After rising in 2018, confidence is ebbing and "this is cause for concern".

Ms Georgieva will serve as the interim President of the World Bank after Jim Yong Kim departs the worldwide financial institution on February 1.

"The sense of urgency has to be there", Kose said.

"As the economic outlook dims, such efforts become even more important", he added.

"Philippines is fairly resilient to external shocks given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals such as having a flexible exchange rate regime, large foreign reserve, low external debt and large inflow of remittances", she said in an e-mailed response to queries.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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