Brace for extra-warm weather through 2022

James Marshall
August 17, 2018

Though impossible to pinpoint when and where, extreme temperatures will be more likely over the next four years, a new probabilistic forecasting system has found.

The prediction comes as a severe and prolonged heatwave sweeps the northern hemisphere.

Research has predicted that the next four years will be hotter than expected because of a freaky phenomenon that has seen global warming slowing down in recent years.

It takes into account external forces affecting global mean surface temperature, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, which follow certain socio-economic scenarios, as well as natural variability, which is harder to predict, they said in a statement.

Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018 to 2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.

"Everything seems to be adding up", Florian Sévellec, a scientist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research and co-author of the study, told the Guardian.

But the unusually hot weather was correctly predicted by the same scientists in January - who said 2018 had a "high probability of having a warm anomaly", relative to the general effects of global warming.

This year has seen temperatures soaring around the world, causing forest fires, droughts and multiple deaths from heatstroke.

But his data clearly suggests that water in the oceans will warm faster than air above land, which could raise the risks of floods, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. "On a human scale, it is what we feel". As a scientist, this is frightening because we don't consider it enough. Instead of the cooling La Ninas experienced in the first decade of the century, he said there have been more warming El Ninas since 2014 and this trend looks set to continue.

However, it will be something that we may have to get used to.

But Gabi Hegerl, professor of climate system science at the University of Edinburgh, warned the global system is not now able to predict heatwaves like the one seen in the United Kingdom this summer.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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