OPEC to maintain key oil supplier status through 2040 - Wood Mackenzie

Marco Green
July 20, 2018

It imported 47 different varieties of crude oil products from 21 countries a year ago, including Mexico from which the company is gradually expanding its oil imports. Officially, that embargo, which began on October 17, 1973, ended five months later. This will have catastrophic effects for Iran, certainly, but also for the price of oil outside Iran.

There's potential for India to increase oil purchases from the USA, whose first shipment reached the South Asian nation in August 2017 after Washington lifted its four-decade-long curbs on crude oil exports.

"WTI will likely be buoyed above US$65 and Brent above US$70 for a while, but as uncertainties remain over the trade dispute between the U.S. and China, we'll continue to have some downward pressure", NH Investment & Securities' Hong said.

He also said that it is this common objective of stabilizing the global oil market that has brought the 25 OPEC and Non-OPEC producers to work together under the historic Declaration of Cooperation, which remains in effect till the end of 2018.

There was some support for prices based on comments from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, that it would cut crude shipments.

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OPEC's second most important player, after Saudi Arabia, is now Russian Federation, despite not being an official member of OPEC. Saudi Arabia claims that it has 2 million bpd of excess capacity-not enough to plug a major hole in the world oil market. And even if OPEC is in compliance, we are seeing signs of more oil production. What passes these days for sound policy created to protect the American consumer from a ramp-up in oil prices is in fact a form of economic self-mutilation, which will harm America for many years to come.

The Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.84 million barrels last week, confounding most analysts in a Bloomberg survey who were forecasting a decline. Thanks to such efforts, the company was able to reduce the share of Iranian crude oil imports to 10 percent as of last month, said a Hyundai Oilbank official. Will we just keep importing more from OPEC and faraway and unstable countries?

Strategic Petroleum Reserve. After the Oil Weapon had been unsheathed by the oil-producing countries in 1973, the USA government began to hold a Strategic Petroleum Reserve. "Other than this, we will only follow our own national interests". When it comes to domestic oil production, special attention should be given to technological breakthroughs of all sorts. The country has added almost 1 million bpd in production since November, thanks to rapid increases in shale drilling. The more-active September contract was little changed at US$68.24.

After pulling out from the Iran Nuclear Deal on May 8, the US President promised that not only will the US reimpose the old sanctions against Tehran but also a new series of sanctions will be stamped on Iran.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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