India's industrial growth clocks nine-month high of 4.3% in August

Marco Green
October 12, 2017

However, for the period April-August 2017, factory output grew at disappointing 2.2 per cent as compared to 5.9 per cent growth in same period last fiscal.

The annual inflation went up in September to 1.8 pct from 1.2 pct in August, according to data of the National Institute of Statistics (INS), sent on Wednesday.

Mumbai: Consumer inflation edged lower to 3.28 per cent for the month of September, driven by housing and fuel prices.

In my opinion, IIP growth will not sustain at this level, as base effect will keep shifting.

There is no room or scope for further easing rates for at least 3-4 months. RBI may take a call in March since it clearly sees inflation scaling higher. All this will basically impart upside risk to the baseline inflation trajectory.

For the end of 2018, BNR estimates a 3.2 pct inflation rate, as compared to 3.1 pct previously estimated. The drop in inflation could also raise demands for a rate cut now from the Reserve Bank of India that had kept the benchmark rates unchanged due to rising inflation trend.

Computed for steady taxes, the inflation rate will reach 2.9 pct in December 2017, a value above the median inflation target of 2.5 pct.

The number is better than our expectations.

The output of mining and electricity sectors during the month accelerated to 9.4 percent and 8.3 percent from (-) 4.3 percent and 2.1 percent respectively in August previous year. Going ahead, the key driver of inflation will be oil.

Other reports by Click Lancashire

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